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电力行业动态跟踪报告:二产回暖推升用电增速,水、核延续高发势头

2019-05-15

电力行业动态跟踪报告:二产回暖推升用电增速,水、核延续高发势头

 2019年04月23日 00:00 平安证券 严(yan)家(jia)源 

   




名称相关涨跌幅
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投(tou)资要点

2019年(nian)(nian)一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度全(quan)国电(dian)(dian)力工(gong)业生产简(jian)况:3月份,全(quan)社(she)会(hui)用电(dian)(dian)量(liang)5732亿千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦时(shi)(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增长(zhang)7.5%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)提(ti)高(gao)3.9个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)点(dian);全(quan)国规(gui)模以上(shang)电(dian)(dian)厂发电(dian)(dian)量(liang)5698亿千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦时(shi)(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增长(zhang)5.4%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)提(ti)高(gao)3.3个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)点(dian)。一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度,全(quan)社(she)会(hui)用电(dian)(dian)量(liang)16795亿千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦时(shi)(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增长(zhang)5.5%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)回(hui)落4.3个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)点(dian);全(quan)国规(gui)模以上(shang)电(dian)(dian)厂发电(dian)(dian)量(liang)16747亿千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦时(shi)(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增长(zhang)4.2%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)回(hui)落3.8个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)点(dian);累计平(ping)均利用小时(shi)(shi)(shi)919小时(shi)(shi)(shi),比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)降(jiang)低(di)3小时(shi)(shi)(shi)。截至3月底,全(quan)国装机(ji)容量(liang)18.15亿千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增长(zhang)5.9%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)回(hui)落0.2个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)点(dian);一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度全(quan)国发电(dian)(dian)新(xin)增装机(ji)容量(liang)1788万千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)少投产716万千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦。

用(yong)电(dian)(dian)量:二产(chan)回(hui)(hui)暖,东部沿(yan)(yan)海回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)明显(xian)。3月(yue)份,一(yi)产(chan)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)3.9%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)2.0个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);二产(chan)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)6.3%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)提高7.9个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);三产(chan)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)9.9%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)11.2个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);城乡居(ju)民生活用(yong)电(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)10.6%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)1.9个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。一(yi)季度,一(yi)产(chan)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)6.8%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)3.5个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);二产(chan)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)3.0%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)3.7个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);三产(chan)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)10.1%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)6.6个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);城乡居(ju)民生活用(yong)电(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)11.0%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)6.2个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。值得注(zhu)意的(de)(de)(de)是(shi),东部沿(yan)(yan)海地区中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)广东、浙江、福(fu)建(jian)三省(sheng)在3月(yue)份的(de)(de)(de)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速明显(xian)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),尤其浙江一(yi)季度的(de)(de)(de)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速已经回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)至全(quan)国平均(jun)水平之上(shang),释(shi)放出(chu)国内(nei)经济(ji)企(qi)稳回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)信号(hao)。

发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang):水(shui)、核延续高发势(shi)头,电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源重心同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)步转(zhuan)移(yi)。3月份,水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)22.0%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)提高27.3个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian);火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)1.0%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回落0.4个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian);核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)31.7%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)提高30.0个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian);风电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)13.1%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回落23.7个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)。一季度(du),水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)12.0%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)提高9.4个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian);火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.0%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回落4.9个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian);核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)26.1%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)提高14.5个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian);风电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)6.1%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回落33.0个(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)。伴随着产业转(zhuan)移(yi)推升本地(di)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求、以及跨省跨区送(song)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)消纳(na)清洁能源,电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源重心也在同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)步向中西部转(zhuan)移(yi)。

利用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi):水(shui)电(dian)大增。一季(ji)度,水(shui)电(dian)利用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi)691小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi),比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同期(qi)增加(jia)74小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi);火电(dian)1083小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi),比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同期(qi)减(jian)少(shao)6小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi);核电(dian)1655小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi),比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同期(qi)减(jian)少(shao)35小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi);风电(dian)556小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi),比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同期(qi)减(jian)少(shao)36小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)(shi)(shi)。

装机容(rong)量(liang):水(shui)、火新增(zeng)趋缓,核电提升显著。截(jie)至3月底,水(shui)电装机容(rong)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)2.5%,比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)落0.5个百(bai)分点(dian)(dian);火电同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)3.3%,比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)落0.4个百(bai)分点(dian)(dian);核电同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)24.3%,比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)加(jia)17.9个百(bai)分点(dian)(dian);风电同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)12.7%,比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)加(jia)2.5个百(bai)分点(dian)(dian)。

投(tou)资建(jian)议:3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)全(quan)(quan)社(she)会用电(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)长7.5%、全(quan)(quan)国(guo)发(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)长5.4%,均优于上(shang)年同(tong)期。主要(yao)推动因素为二产用电(dian)(dian)(dian)量在(zai)3月(yue)大幅回(hui)暖,同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速达(da)到6.3%;此外,东部(bu)沿海地(di)区(qu)中的(de)广(guang)东、浙江、福建(jian)三省在(zai)3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)的(de)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速明显回(hui)升,尤其浙江省一季度的(de)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速已回(hui)升至全(quan)(quan)国(guo)平(ping)均水(shui)平(ping)之上(shang)。3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)、核(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)发(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量延续着前两个月(yue)的(de)高速增(zeng)(zeng)长势(shi)头(tou),但(dan)对火电(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)(li)的(de)压(ya)制也在(zai)持续。水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)板块推荐水(shui)火共济(ji)、攻守兼备的(de)国(guo)投(tou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li),以及全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)龙头(tou)长江电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li),建(jian)议关(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)湖(hu)北能(neng)源(yuan)、华(hua)能(neng)水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian);核(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)板块强(qiang)烈推荐A股(gu)(gu)(gu)纯核(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)运营标的(de)中国(guo)核(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian),推荐参股(gu)(gu)(gu)多个核(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)项目的(de)浙能(neng)电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、申能(neng)股(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)(fen)(fen),建(jian)议关(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)拟回(hui)归A股(gu)(gu)(gu)、国(guo)内(nei)装机第一的(de)中广(guang)核(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(H);火电(dian)(dian)(dian)板块建(jian)议关(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)全(quan)(quan)国(guo)龙头(tou)华(hua)能(neng)国(guo)际、国(guo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)旗下上(shang)海电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)。

风险提(ti)示:1)利用(yong)小时下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)。电(dian)(dian)力(li)工业作(zuo)为(wei)国民经济运(yun)转的(de)(de)(de)支柱之(zhi)一(yi),供需(xu)关系的(de)(de)(de)变化(hua)在较大(da)程度上受(shou)到(dao)宏观(guan)经济运(yun)行状态(tai)的(de)(de)(de)影响,将(jiang)直接影响到(dao)发电(dian)(dian)设备的(de)(de)(de)利用(yong)小时数。2)上网电(dian)(dian)价(jia)(jia)(jia)降(jiang)(jiang)低。下(xia)(xia)游(you)用(yong)户(hu)侧降(jiang)(jiang)低销售电(dian)(dian)价(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)政策可(ke)能(neng)(neng)向上游(you)发电(dian)(dian)侧传(chuan)导,导致上网电(dian)(dian)价(jia)(jia)(jia)降(jiang)(jiang)低;随着电(dian)(dian)改的(de)(de)(de)推进,电(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)场化(hua)交易规(gui)模不断扩大(da),可(ke)能(neng)(neng)拉(la)低平均(jun)上网电(dian)(dian)价(jia)(jia)(jia)。3)煤炭(tan)价(jia)(jia)(jia)格上升。煤炭(tan)优质产(chan)能(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)释放(fang)进度落后,且(qie)环保限(xian)产(chan)进一(yi)步压制(zhi)了煤炭(tan)的(de)(de)(de)生产(chan)和(he)供应(ying);用(yong)电(dian)(dian)需(xu)求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)大(da)幅增长提(ti)高(gao)了煤炭(tan)生厂(chang)商及供应(ying)商的(de)(de)(de)议价(jia)(jia)(jia)能(neng)(neng)力(li),导致电(dian)(dian)煤价(jia)(jia)(jia)格难以(yi)得到(dao)有(you)效控制(zhi);对(dui)于(yu)以(yi)煤机为(wei)主(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)企(qi)业,燃料(liao)成本上升将(jiang)减(jian)少(shao)利润。4)政策推进滞后。国内部(bu)分(fen)地区的(de)(de)(de)电(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)目前(qian)仍处于(yu)供大(da)于(yu)求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)状态(tai),可(ke)能(neng)(neng)影响存量(liang)核电(dian)(dian)机组的(de)(de)(de)电(dian)(dian)量(liang)消(xiao)纳、以(yi)及新建核电(dian)(dian)机组的(de)(de)(de)开工建设。5)降(jiang)(jiang)水量(liang)减(jian)少(shao)。水电(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)经营业绩主(zhu)要取(qu)决于(yu)来水和(he)消(xiao)纳情况,而来水情况与降(jiang)(jiang)水、气候等自然因素(su)相关,可(ke)预测性不高(gao)。


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